长三角工业SO2排放驱动因素全周期因素分解及其区域差异

Examining the Driving Factors and Regional Differences of Industrial SO2 Emissions from the Yangtze River Delta Cities

摘要:

量化评估长三角工业SO2排放影响因素的减排效应及其区域差异,有助于因地制宜制定区域差异化的减排路径。基于全过程控制的视角,采用LMDI完全分解模型对长三角城市工业SO2排放的影响因素及其时空差异进行实证分析。研究认为,源头驱动因子对长三角工业SO2排放表现为促增作用,而过程控制因子和末端治理因子则表现为减排效应。考察期内各影响因子的减排效应存在时空差异,末端治理是长三角各城市工业SO2减排的主要手段,其在经济发达城市的减排贡献较之于经济欠发达城市相对较小,经济增长则对工业SO2排放的促增作用最为显著但趋于减弱,而经济结构、煤耗结构和煤炭清洁利用的减排效应逐渐凸显,且其减排能力提升与地方经济发展水平有密切关系。转变经济发展模式、提高末端治理水平是当前减少SO2排放的通用型措施,而提高工业能源效率和煤炭清洁利用水平在未来则有更大的减排潜力。

Abstract:

Quantifying and assessing the reduction effects and regional differences of the industrial SO2 emission factors which is helpful for formulating regionally differentiated reduction paths according to local conditions. Based on the perspective of the whole-process control, LMDI complete decomposition model is adopted in this paper to conduct empirical analysis on the influencing factors of urban industrial SO2 emissions and their spatiotemporal differences in the Yangtze River Delta. The results show that, the source driving factor has a promoting effect on industrial SO2 emissions in the Yangtze River Delta, while the process control and terminal control factors show an emission reduction effect. In addition, the spatial and temporal disparities exist in the SO2 reduction effects of various influencing factors during the investigation period. The terminal treatment is the main mean of industrial SO2 emission reduction in the cities of the Yangtze River Delta, and its contribution to SO2 reduction in economically developed cities is relatively smaller compared to the economically underdeveloped cities. Economic growth has the most significant effect on industrial SO2 emissions but tends to weaken, while the economic structure, the coal consumption structure and clean utilization of coal are gradually emerging, and its emission reduction capacity is closely related to the level of local economic development. Transforming the economic development model and improving the level of terminal control are the current general measures to reduce SO2 emissions, while increasing industrial energy efficiency and coal clean utilization levels will have greater emission reduction potential in the future.