利用碳排放量和碳汇量构建碳锁定系数模型，测度中国30个省市2007-2016年碳锁定程度；构建空间面板模型，实证检验影响碳锁定程度的关键因素，并利用一阶差分GMM解决变量内生性问题，以避免估计结果不稳健。实证结果表明：中国省域碳锁定存在明显的空间溢出效应，城镇化、地区建设、交通运输、对外开放是导致中国碳锁定程度加深的重要因素；考虑内生性问题后，创新能力和环境规制能够有效减缓中国碳锁定程度的加深。

The paper uses carbon emissions and carbon sinks to build a carbon lock-in coefficient model, measuring the carbon lock-in degree of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2016. Through building a spatial panel model, we test the key factors affecting carbon lock-in degree under spatial, temporal and bidirectional fixed effects, and in order to avoid the unstable estimation results by empirical research，we use the first-order differential GMM to solve the endogenous problem of variables . The results show that a phenomenon of obvious spatial spillover effect in China's provincial carbon lock-in. Urbanization, regional construction , transportation and fdi are the important factors ,which lead to the deepening of carbon lock-in. Innovation abilities and environmental regulations can slow down the deepening of carbon lock-in effectively.

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