海洋产业结构升级、海洋科技创新与海洋经济增长——基于省际面板数据PVAR模型的实证研究

Marine industrial structure upgrading, marine science and technology innovation and marine economic growth

摘要:

为促进我国海洋经济实现高质量发展，基于2006-2015年的省际面板数据，运用PVAR模型对海洋产业结构升级、海洋科技创新与海洋经济增长之间的动态关系进行实证分析，研究结果表明:海洋产业结构升级对海洋经济增长具有显著的影响，海洋经济增长对海洋科技创新具有显著的影响；从短期来看，海洋经济增长对海洋产业结构升级的正向效应不明显，从长期来看，海洋经济增长能够促进海洋产业结构的优化；海洋科技创新对海洋经济增长的正效应逐渐减弱；海洋产业结构升级对海洋经济增长的贡献率高于海洋科技创新对海洋经济增长的贡献率；海洋产业结构升级是海洋经济增长的格兰杰原因，海洋经济增长是海洋科技创新的格兰杰原因。

Abstract:

In order to promote the high-quality development of China's marine economy, based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2006 to 2015, the PVAR model is used to empirically analyze the dynamic relationship between marine industrial structure upgrading, marine science and technology innovation and marine economic growth. It shows that the upgrading of marine industry structure has a significant impact on the growth of marine economy. The growth of marine economy has a significant impact on marine science and technology innovation. In the short term, the positive effect of marine economic growth on the upgrading of marine industry structure is not obvious. It can be seen that the growth of marine economy can promote the optimization of the structure of marine industry; the positive effect of marine science and technology innovation on the growth of marine economy is gradually weakened; the contribution rate of marine industrial structure upgrading to marine economic growth is higher than the contribution rate of marine science and technology innovation to marine economic growth; The upgrading of the marine industry structure is the Granger cause of the growth of the marine economy. The growth of the marine economy is the Granger cause of marine technological innovation.