基于改进EKC模型的农作物产量与碳足迹协整关系研究—以黑龙江省水稻生产为例

The Cointegration Relationship between Yield of Rice and the Carbon Footprint in Heilongjiang Province—An Empirical Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve

摘要:

利用黑龙江省2002-2016年水稻生产单位面积碳足迹与单位面积产量的时间序列数据,采用改进的EKC模型,研究了农作物产量与碳足迹产量之间是否存在的协整关系,并对二者之间的格兰杰因果关系进行检验。结果表明,黑龙江省水稻生产单位面积碳足迹与单位面积产量之间存在长期协整关系,二者之间呈“波浪”型曲线形状。黑龙江省水稻生产单位面积产量与单位面积碳足迹存在单向因果关系,产量变化会导致碳足迹变化,而碳足迹变化并不会引起产量的改变。农作物生产过程中逐步实现农资产品的减量化、资源化和无害化,寻求新兴技术是实现农作物生产低碳发展的可选路径。

关键词:产量;碳足迹;协整关系;格兰杰因果关系;黑龙江

Abstract:

Based on the time series data of carbon footprint per unit area and yield per unit area of rice production in Heilongjiang Province from 2002 to 2016, the cointegration relationship between crop yield and environmental pollution was analyzed by using the improved EKC model, then granger causality between the two variables are tested. The results showed that there was a long-term cointegration relationship between carbon footprint per unit area of rice production and yield per unit area in Heilongjiang Province, and the relationship between carbon footprint and yield per unit area showed a ‘wave’ curve shape. The study shows that there is a one-way causal relationship between rice yield per unit area and carbon footprint per unit area in Heilongjiang Province. The change of rice yield will lead to the change of carbon footprint, but the change of carbon footprint will not cause the change of rice yield. For the development of crops in Heilongjiang Province, it is an alternative way to realize the reduction, resourcefulness and harmlessness of agricultural inputs during the whole process of agricultural production, seek new technology to realize the low carbon development of the agricultural commodities.

Key words:yield; carbon footprint; cointegration relationship; granger causality relationship;heilongjiang