基于PCA-GRA模型的南京生态城市建设与产业结构关联分析

Analysis of the Relation Between the Construction of Ecological City and Industrial Structure in Nanjing: Empirical Analysis Based on PCA-GRA Model

摘要:

基于“驱动力-压力-状态-响应”（DPSR）模型构建生态城市建设水平评价指标体系，利用主成分分析法（PCA）计算指标权重对南京生态城市建设水平进行评价；同时，运用灰色关联模型（GRA）分析南京三次产业及产业内部结构对生态城市建设造成的影响。研究结果显示：2007－2016年间，南京生态城市建设水平除部分年份综合得分变动幅度明显较小外，总体上处于上升趋势；第一二三次产业对生态城市建设均存在重要影响，其中第三产业关联最大，其次为第一产业和第二产业；第一产业内部农业及农林牧渔服务业关联度较大，第二产业中工业关联度有所提升，建筑业关联度较低，第三产业中金融业、其他服务业等关联度较大，住宿餐饮业和交通运输业关联度较低。为推动南京生态城市建设，未来应进一步采取优化产业结构、对第一二三次产业内部进行取长补短的提升、加大环境治理的科技水平等措施。

Abstract:

Based on the DPSR (driving-pressure-state-response) model, this paper constructs evaluation index system of ecological city construction level, and evaluates ecological city construction level of Nanjing by using the index weight which calculated by principal component analysis (PCA). At the same time, the paper analyzes the influence of three industries and internal structure on the construction of ecological city of Nanjing by using the grey relational model (GRA). The research results show that: between 2007 and 2016, the construction level of ecological city of Nanjing is on the rise in general, except that the change range of comprehensive score in some years is obviously small; the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in Nanjing all have an important influence on the construction of ecological city, among which the tertiary industry is the most related, followed by the primary industry and the secondary industry; in the primary industry, agriculture and the service industry of forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are closely related, within the second industry, the correlation degree of industry has increased, and the correlation degree of construction industry is relatively low, and in the tertiary industry, the financial industry and other service industries have a large degree of correlation, while the accommodation and catering industry and transportation industry have a low degree of correlation. In order to promote the construction of Nanjing ecological city, further measures should be taken to optimize the industrial structure, improve the internal strengths of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and enhance the scientific and technological level of environmental governance.