我国农业区水资源-能源-粮食系统协调适配与农业产出 ——基于人力资本门槛效应的实证

Coordinated suitability of water-energy-food system and agricultural output on agricultural areas in China: an empirical research based on the threshold effect of human capital

摘要:

摘要：基于2012-2016年我国40个农业区域的面板数据，在考虑人力资本差异的情况下，建立耦合评价模型和面板门槛模型，测度农业区水资源-能源-粮食（WEF）三大主要资源的协调适配程度，并以此为基础，探索WEF系统的协调适配对农业产出的影响。研究发现：（1）我国大部分农业区WEF系统处于临界适配区或耦合失谐区，整体上投入产出存在不匹配的现象，投入要素冗余严重，资源配置效率偏低。（2）WEF系统协调适配与农业产出存在双重门槛，只有当农业从业人员达到较高教育水平时，WEF系统的协调适配对农业产出呈现显著的促进作用。其政策启示是：基于区域不同的协调适配水平，政府应因地制宜开展资源的开发和管理，提升WEF系统的配置效率，并实施与区域相适应的人才和乡村振兴战略，通过传导效应提升资源的协调适配程度对农业产出的正向作用。

Abstract:

This paper studied the impact of the coordinated suitability of the three major resources water-energy-food (WEF) on agricultural output with human capital differences by establishing coupling evaluation model and panel threshold model, based on panel data of 40 agricultural regions in China from 2012 to 2016. The study found that: (1) Most agricultural areas stay on the critical adaptation region or coupling detuning region, and the input and output of WEF system in agricultural areas are not matched on the whole, that is, the redundancy of input elements is serious and the efficiency of resource allocation is low. (2) There are double thresholds between resource suitability and agricultural output. Only when agricultural practitioners reach a higher level of education, the suitability of WEF system has a significant role in promoting agricultural output. The policy implication is that based on the different coordinated suitability level of regions, the governments should carry out resource development and management to improve the allocation efficiency of WEF system according to local conditions. Moreover, relevant talents and rural revitalization program should be put into force, enhancing the positive role of resources coordination and adaptation on agricultural output through transmission effect.