农业碳排放的脱钩效应及驱动因素分析—以黑龙江省为例

Decoupling and Driving Factors Analysis on Carbon Emission of Agricultural Production- A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province

摘要:

为控制农业碳排放,增强农业绿色发展能力,需要准确核算农业碳排放量,探究农业碳排放与农业增长的关系,分析碳排放与农业增长脱钩状态,找出驱动因素。本文以我国最大的绿色农产品生产基地黑龙江省为例,在科学核算农业生产碳排放量基础上,利用Tapio脱钩模型分析碳排放与农业增长的脱钩状态和发展趋势,并结合LMDI模型分析碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明：2008-2017年黑龙江省农业碳排放总量年均增长3.27%,但其年际增速在快速下降,化肥是最大的碳排放源,平均占比高达73.91%,全省碳排放强度呈先增后降趋势,2016年以后全省农业碳排放量与种农业总产值之间开始呈现出强脱钩态势。在各驱动因素中,农业产值是影响碳排放强度的主体原因,累计推动碳排放增加738.25万t,而农业生产效率是抑制碳排放的主要动力,累计促进碳减排603.75万t。因此控制农业生产碳排放量是实现我国农业供给侧结构性改革、提质增效的重要手段。

Abstract:

In order to control agricultural carbon emissions and enhance agricultural green development capacity, it is necessary to accurately calculate agricultural carbon emissions, explore the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural growth, analyze the decoupling state of carbon emissions and agricultural growth, and find out the driving factors.In this paper, heilongjiang province, the largest green agricultural product production base in China, is taken as an example. On the basis of scientific accounting of agricultural carbon emissions, the decoupling state and development trend of carbon emissions and agricultural growth are analyzed with Tapio decoupling model, and the driving factors of carbon emissions are analyzed with LMDI model.Results show that heilongjiang province agricultural carbon emissions in 2008-2017 average annual growth of 3.27%, but its annual growth rate in the rapid decline, fertilizer is the biggest source of carbon emissions, the average proportion is as high as 73.91%, the province"s carbon intensity showed a trend of increase after the first drop, after 2016, the provincial agricultural carbon emissions and began to present a strong decoupling between agricultural output.Among all the driving factors, agricultural output value is the main factor affecting carbon emission intensity, which accumulatively promotes the increase of carbon emission by 7.3825 million t, while agricultural production efficiency is the main power to curb carbon emission, which accumulatively promotes the carbon emission reduction by 6.0375 million t.Therefore, controlling the carbon emission of agricultural production is an important means to realize the supply-side structural reform of agriculture in China and improve the quality and efficiency.