金融发展、创新驱动与经济增长—基于省际面板数据的实证研究

Financial Development, Innovation-Driven and Economic Growth：An Empirical Research Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要:

本文主要基于中国30个省市2007~2016年的面板数据，分别以银行贷款余额/GDP、股票交易额/GDP、私募风投（PEVC）融资额/GDP三个金融发展水平指标为门限变量，运用面板门限模型研究创新驱动与经济增长之间的关系。实证结果表明，以银行贷款余额/GDP、股票交易额/GDP为门限变量并且变量值超过门限值时，创新驱动对经济增长的促进作用显著加强；以PEVC融资额/GDP为门限变量时，创新驱动与经济增长的关系呈现出U型.

Abstract:

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2016, we take three financial development variables as the threshold variables including the proportion of bank loan balance to GDP, the proportion of stock market trading volume to GDP, and the proportion of venture capital to GDP, respectively. Then the relationship between the innovation-driven and the economic growth is examined by the panel threshold model. The empirical results show that the role of innovation-driven for the economic growth is significantly improved with the proportions of bank loan balance and stock trading volume to GDP. Moreover, the relationship between innovation-driven and economic growth displays U type when the proportion of venture capital to GDP is adopted as the threshold variable.