人工智能产业创新能力与融资生态耦合演进——基于系统动力学视角

Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation Capability and Financing Ecology Coupling Evolution: Based on System Dynamics Perspective

摘要:

基于系统动力学视角构建中国人工智能产业创新能力与融资环境仿真系统，采用耦合协调度模型分析产业创新能力与融资生态的耦合演进阶段，并探索不同创新情景对融资环境耦合协调阶段的影响效果。研究结果表明：（1）中国人工智能产业创新能力与融资环境长期处于基本协调和中度协调状态，系统仿真结果预测将于2019年跨入高度协调。（2）创新能力的增量改变对系统耦合协调程度有不同程度的正向改善作用，创新资源的拉动作用最为显著，人工智能产业的生态情境依赖性决定了政府在对资金量总体供给进行适度引导的同时应避免陷入“政府干预陷阱”。

关键词:人工智能 融资环境 系统动力学 耦合演进

Abstract:

Based on the perspective of system dynamics, this paper constructs an artificial intelligence industry innovation capability and financing environment simulation system. On this basis, the coupling coordination degree model is used to analyze the coupling evolution stage of China's artificial intelligence industry innovation ability and financing ecology, and explores the effects of different innovation scenarios on the coupling and coordination phase of the financing environment. The research results show that: (1) at present, China's artificial intelligence industry innovation capability and financing environment are at a high level coupling stage, but it is in a state of basic coordination and moderate coordination for a long time, the system simulation results are predicted to enter a high degree of coordination in 2019. (2) The incremental change of innovation ability has positive effect on the degree of system coupling and coordination, and the effect of innovation resources is the most significant, the ecological dependence of artificial intelligence industry determines that the government should not fall into the "government intervention trap" while properly guiding the overall supply of funds.

Key words:Artificial intelligence; financing environment; system dynamics; coupling evolution