化学灾害中个体风险感知的系统动力学建模与仿真研究

Wang Zhong-you,Zhang Chun-yan

摘要:

化学灾害发生后,个体风险感知水平和客观风险水平之间的差距会进一步影响其行为倾向和后续决策,运用系统动力学软件Vensim构建模型来研究二者之间差值的拟合过程,可以更为清晰的看出风险的传播过程,特别是化学事故所引发的舆情风险和污染风险的传播情况,进而得出控制风险的几个关键时间点以及相关措施。

Abstract:

After the occurrence of chemical disasters, the gap between individual risk perception level and objective risk level will further affect their behavior tendency and follow-up decision. Using the system dynamics software Vensim to build a model to study the fitting process of the difference between the two, we can more clearly see the spread process of risk, especially the spread of public opinion risk and pollution risk caused by chemical accidents. Then several key time points and related measures to control the risk are obtained.