根据康奈尔大学、欧洲工商管理学院、世界知识产权组织（WIPO）等机构发布的年度国家创新能力指数（GII）得分和排名来看，国家的绝对创新能力和相对排名并非一成不变，而是普遍的出现了创新能力波动的现象，“创新乏力”的出现也并非小概率事件。通过比较研究，创新乏力成为国家发展的主要风险之一。目前全球经济增长迟缓，发展不确定性巨大，认识创新乏力及政府的作用对于国家发展意义重大。本文通过全球创新指数（GII）定义了“创新乏力”，并试图使用Logit模型来探索“创新乏力”这一风险的影响因素及政府对于防范该风险的作用。笔者发现完善的市场机制和人力资本的提升能显著降低“创新”乏力发生的概率。政府需转变传统的创新支持方式，因为为创新营造良好的制度环境和提升人力资本比盲目扩大一般基础设施建设、纯粹增加政府R&D支出更有效。此外，笔者进一步建议：一是坚定不移的深化改革国家创新治理体系。二是进一步加强创新文化建设，培育包容友好的社会环境。三是以人为本，构建具有活力和创造力的人才体系。

According to Cornell university, the European institute of business administration, the world intellectual property organization (WIPO), and other agencies issued the annual national innovation capability index (GII) score and ranking, the country's absolute innovation ability and relative ranking is not fixed, but generally the innovation ability fluctuation phenomenon, the emergence of "innovation" is not a small probability event. Through comparative research, the lack of innovation becomes one of the main risks of national development. At present, global economic growth is sluggish and development is uncertain. It is of great significance for national development to recognize the lack of innovation and the role of government. This paper defines "innovation weakness" through the global innovation index (GII), and tries to explore the influencing factors of the risk of "innovation weakness" and the role of government in preventing this risk by using Logit model. The author finds that the improvement of market mechanism and human capital can significantly reduce the probability of "innovation" failure. The government needs to change the traditional way of innovation support, because it is more effective to create a good institutional environment for innovation and improve human capital than to blindly expand general infrastructure construction and increase government R&D expenditure. In addition, the author further suggests: first, unswervingly deepen the reform of the national innovation governance system. Second, we need to strengthen cultural innovation and foster an inclusive and friendly social environment. Third, we should put people first and build a talent system with vitality and creativity.

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