碳排放权交易减轻中国工业碳锁定了吗？ --基于DID及SDID方法的实证分析

Does carbon trading reduce carbon lock-in in China"s industry?

摘要:

碳排放权交易已在多个试点地区实施多年，利用建模分析方法，探讨碳排放权交易对地区工业碳锁定程度的影响。采集中国30个省市2010-2016年面板数据，计算工业碳锁定系数，依此测算工业碳锁定程度，并运用双重差分法（DID）和空间计量-双重差分法（SDID）加以研究。研究结果表明：碳排放权交易能够有效减轻本地区工业碳锁定程度，且我国工业碳锁定存在明显的空间溢出效应，碳排放权交易在某一地区的实施，同样可减轻其相邻地区工业碳锁定程度。

Abstract:

Carbon emission trading has been implemented in many pilot areas for many years. The paper uses the method of modeling analysis, and explores the impacts of carbon emissions trading on regional industrial carbon lock-in. The panel data from 2010 to 2016 of 30 provinces and municipalities in China are collected to calculate the industrial carbon lock-in coefficient, and the degree of industrial carbon lock-in. The double difference method and spatial measurement-double difference method are used to research the degree of industrial carbon lock-in. The results show that carbon emissions trading can reduce effectively the degree of industrial carbon lock-in about one region, and there is a significant spatial spillover effects in industrial carbon lock-in in China. The implementation of carbon emissions trading in a certain region can also reduce the degree of industrial carbon lock-in with its adjacent areas.