中国石化行业二氧化碳排放的影响因素分解 ——基于广义迪氏指数分解法

Factor Decomposition of affecting carbon dioxide emissions in China's petrochemical industry——Based on Generalized Divisia Index Method

摘要:

石化行业作为我国的基础性产业和二氧化碳排放大户，已经成为影响我国碳减排目标实现的重点行业。本文采用广义迪氏指数分解法对我国石化行业2000-2016年的二氧化碳排放演变进行分解，进行阶段性及累计效应分析，考察投资、产出、能源消费以及相应的碳强度、能源强度和投资效率的变化对二氧化碳排放变化的贡献情况。结果表明：投资、产出及能源消费规模是促进二氧化碳排放增长的主要因素；投资碳强度和产出碳强度是主要的促降因素；能源碳强度、投资效率和能源强度作用较弱，具有很大的改善空间，是未来石化行业减碳政策制定的主要着手点。

Abstract:

As a basic and a major carbon dioxide industry in China, the petrochemical industry has become a key industry affecting the realization of China's carbon emission reduction targets. This paper uses the generalized Divisia Index Method to decompose the evolution of carbon dioxide emissions in China's petrochemical industry from 2000 to 2016, and analyzes the phased and cumulative effects to investigate the contribution of changes to changes in CO2 emissions from changes of investment, output, energy consumption and corresponding carbon intensity, energy intensity and investment efficiency. The results show that investment scale, output scale and energy consumption scale are the main factors for CO2 emission increase; investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity are the main factors for promoting the decline; The impact of energy carbon intensity, investment efficiency and energy intensity is weak, which has great room for improvement. It is the main starting point for the future carbon reduction policy formulation in the petrochemical industry, and proposes a corresponding carbon reduction policy.