湖南省科技投入关联因素相关性及因果关系测度

Measuring the Correlation and Causality of R D Investment Associated Factors in Hunan Province

摘要:

采用Pearson相关性分析、灰色关联分析和Granger因果关系检验方法，从相关性和因果关系的角度，分析湖南省科技统计面板数据与以R&D投入为代表的科技投入的相互作用关系。研究结果表明：湖南省高新技术企业数量、专利申请与授权数量、地区生产总值（GDP）和R&D项目金额与该省的R&D投入关系密切，其中高新技术企业数量与R&D投入的相关性最高，且这些因素之间存在单向的作用关系，具体表现为GDP增长刺激R&D投入增加，R&D投入增加则进一步促进高新技术企业成长和专利成果的产出。通过分析认为，湖南省要增加R&D投入、提升区域科技创新能力，应稳定经济稳增长，提高R&D投入的转化水平，并合理搭配科技政策。

Abstract:

In this paper, Pearson correlation analysis, grey correlation analysis and Granger causality test are used to analyze the interaction relationship between the panel data of science and technology statistics in Hunan province and the science and technology input represented by R&D investment, from the perspective of relevance and causality. The results show that in Hunan, the number of high-tech enterprises, the number of patent applications and authorizations, the regional gross domestic product (GDP) and the amount of R&D projects are closely related to the investment of R&D investment, among them, the number of high-tech enterprises has the highest correlation with R&D investment. And there is a one-way relationship between these factors, specific performance is that GDP growth stimulates the increase of R&D investment, and R&D investment increase will further promote the growth of high-tech enterprises and the output of patent results. According to the analysis, if Hunan wants to increase R&D investment and enhance regional scientific and technological innovation ability, it should stabilize economic growth, improve the level of R&D investment transformation, and reasonably match the science and technology policy.