甘肃省经济绿色竞争力系统动力学仿真评价及预测

System dynamics simulation and prediction of regional economy green competitiveness in gansu province

摘要:

考虑甘肃省经济绿色竞争力系统由经济、环保、资源、科技、人口、政府等子系统交叉融合而成，基于系统动力学构建甘肃省经济绿色竞争力系统模型，构建系统评价指标，针对各个子系统可能存在的问题设置单一政策及组合政策进行调控、预测及评价，仿真发现加大研发投入对甘肃省经济绿色竞争力水平的影响最为显著，第二影响因素为环保政策，第三影响因素为人口政策，其他影响因素如产业结构、能耗总量等影响较弱。

Abstract:

Considering that Gansu's economic green competitiveness system is composed of economic, environmental protection, resources, science and technology, population, government and other subsystems. Based on the system dynamics, the system model of Gansu's economic green competitiveness is constructed. Establishing system evaluation index, setting up single policy and combination policy to regulate, this paper forecast and evaluate the possible problems of each subsystem. The simulation results show that increasing R&D investment has the most significant impact on Gansu's economic green competitiveness level. The second factor is environmental protection policy, and the third factor is population policy. Other factors, such as industrial structure and total energy consumption, have a weak impact.