福建绿色经济高质量发展“经济-社会-环境”复杂系统研究

Research on the Complex System of "Economic-Social-Environment" for the High Quality Development of Fujian Green Economy

摘要:

福建经济社会发展转型升级阶段面临着巨大的环境和资源压力,在全国生态文明建设目标的体系及美丽中国目标的战略指引下,绿色经济高质量发展成为福建发展的必然选择。通过构建经济,社会,环境三个子系统的绿色经济高质量发展指标体系,结合系统动力学理论及参考福建统计数据的基础上构建了福建绿色经济高质量发展模型。在此基础上结合实际情况设计了五种绿色经济高质量发展情境,并运用Vensim PLE软件对这五种情境进行福建2013—2035年的绿色经济仿真模拟,结果显示“经济—社会—环境”均衡协调发展在福建绿色经济高质量发展中有明显的优势,并提出福建绿色经济高质量发展的相关建议：加大政府对福建绿色经济高质量发展三个子系统的协调与扶持；引导企业绿色生产及公众绿色消费；加大绿色科技投入,打好“绿色科技”动力牌；借助大数据,“互联网+”技术,加快福建绿色经济数字化进程。

关键词:绿色经济 ;“经济—社会—环境”复杂系统; 系统动力学;Vensim PLE仿真

Abstract:

Fujian"s economic and social development is facing a huge environmental and resource pressure during the transformation and upgrading stage. Under the guidance of the national ecological civilization construction goal system and the beautiful Chinese goal, the high-quality development of green economy has become an inevitable choice for Fujian"s development. By constructing a green economy high-quality development index system of economic, social and environmental subsystems, combined with system dynamics theory and reference to Fujian statistical data, a high-quality development model of Fujian green economy was constructed. On this basis, five high-quality development scenarios of green economy were designed based on the actual situation, and the five scenarios were simulated by the Vensim PLE software in the green economy simulation of Fujian 2013-2035. The results show that the “economic-social-environment” equilibrium Coordinated development has obvious advantages in the high-quality development of Fujian"s green economy, and puts forward relevant suggestions for the high-quality development of Fujian"s green economy: increase the coordination and support of the government"s three subsystems for the high-quality development of Fujian"s green economy; guide the enterprise"s green production and Public green consumption; increase investment in green technology, lay a good "green technology" power card; use big data, "Internet +" technology to accelerate the digitalization process of Fujian green economy.

Key words:green economy; ";economic-social-environment"; complex system; system dynamics; Vensim PLE simulation