技术进步能抑制中国二氧化碳排放吗？- 基于面板分位数模型的实证研究

Can Technological Progress Suppresses Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China?:An Empirical Study Based on Panel Quantile Model

摘要:

技术进步是实现经济增长的核心动力，理清技术进步与二氧化碳排放之间的关系，有助于充分发挥技术进步的节能减排潜力。本文基于中国2001~2016年30个省的面板数据，根据二氧化碳排放量的大小将30个省划分成不同区域，利用面板分位数模型比较研究不同类型技术进步对中国区域碳排放的影响。实证结果表明：1、能源使用技术进步抑制碳排放的技术效应要大于促进碳排放的能源回弹效应，净效应表现为抑制碳排放，并且净效应大小与区域碳排放水平呈U型结构；2、CO2排放技术进步在三种技术进步中抑制碳排放的作用最明显，但是其减排效应只有在年均碳排放量大于0.25分位点的省份才会发挥作用，因为只有环境规制强度达到一定水平，企业才会进行低碳技术创新，减少二氧化碳排放；3、广义型技术进步对碳排放影响的系数估计值在统计上并不显著，净效应并没有表现出碳减排作用，可能与各省粗放型经济发展方式有关； 4、比较分析不同技术进步对碳排放的影响时，发现能源使用技术进步与CO2排放技术进步在碳排放水平最高的三个省份（江苏、山东、河北）抑制二氧化碳排放的作用最明显。

Abstract:

Technological progress is the core driving force to achieve economic growth. Clarifying the relationship between technological progress and carbon dioxide emissions is helpful to give full play to the energy saving and emission reduction potential of technological progress. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2016, this paper divides 30 provinces into different regions according to the size of carbon dioxide emissions, and uses the panel quantile model to compare the effects of different kinds of technological progress on regional carbon emissions in China. The results show that the technical effect of energy use technological progress in inhibiting carbon emissions is greater than the rebound effect of it in promoting carbon emissions. The net effect is to inhibit carbon emissions, and the net effect is in a U-shaped structure with the level of regional carbon emissions. Among the three kinds of technological progress, the effect of technological progress of CO2 emission on carbon emission is the most obvious. The estimated coefficient of the impact of generalized technological progress on carbon emissions is not statistically significant, and the net effect does not show the effect of carbon emission reduction, owing to the extensive economic development mode of each province. Energy use technological progress and technological progress of CO2 emission have the most obvious effect on inhibiting carbon dioxide emissions in the three provinces (Jiangsu, Shandong and Hebei) with the highest levels of carbon emissions.