区域碳排放权减排分配机制设计 ——基于1.5℃温升目标

Design of a Regional Carbon Emission Reduction Allocation Mechanism: Based on 1.5℃ Temperature Rise Target

摘要:

确定中国在现行目标和温升1.5℃目标约束下2030年的碳排放权减排量，基于6种分配原则建立地区碳排放权减排机制，并对比达到零和博弈数据包络分析（ZSG-DEA）有效时各省份的碳排放量与减排责任量，据此分析中国八大经济区之间呈现出的空间特征。研究结果表明：（1）基于平等原则、累计排放原则和经济指数原则的分配方案中，经济较发达的省份负担了较多的碳减排压力；（2）考虑效率的综合原则、偏公平原则和偏有效原则下，发展相对落后的省份碳减排责任量增加较多，表现出明显的异质性；（3）加入碳排放强度因素的地区碳减排量分布和达到ZSG-DEA有效的地区碳排放量分布均呈现出集聚在沿海经济区的趋同空间特征。

Abstract:

Determines the carbon emission reduction in China of 2030 under the current target and temperature rise 1.5℃ target, and designs an inter-provincial carbon emission reduction mechanism based on six allocation principles, then compares the carbon emissions and emission reduction responsibilities of each province when the zero sum game of data envelopment analysis models (ZSG-DEA) is effective. We finally analyzes the spatial characteristics of the eight major economic zones in China. The results show that :(1) In the distribution scheme based on the principle of equality, the principle of cumulative emission and the principle of economic index, the economically more developed provinces bear more pressure on carbon emission reduction; (2) Under the comprehensive principle of efficiency, the principle of partial fairness and the principle of partial effectiveness, the responsibility for carbon emission reduction in relatively backward provinces has increased more, showing obvious heterogeneity; (3) Regional carbon emission reduction with carbon intensity factors and those with ZSG-DEA effective regional carbon emission distribution all show convergent spatial characteristics that are concentrated in coastal economic zones.