基于可持续理念的生态福利与经济发展互动关系研究

Research on the interaction between Ecological Welfare and economic development based on sustainable concept

摘要:

在美丽中国建设视域下,基于可持续发展理念,通过分析生态福利和经济发展的内涵与机理,运用全排列多边形综合图示法,构建中国2004-2017年生态福利可持续指数和经济发展可持续指数。在此基础上,采用VAR模型对生态福利和经济发展的动态关系进行实证研究,并通过障碍度分析,挖掘研究期内生态福利和经济发展的关键制约因素。结果表明：在研究期内,生态福利可持续提升与经济可持续发展之间存在长期均衡关系,二者互为格兰杰原因；生态福利可持续提升对经济可持续发展的预测方差起着重要作用,而经济可持续发展对生态福利可持续提升的预测方差的贡献度比较小。

Abstract:

From the perspective of beautiful China construction, based on the concept of sustainable development, through the analysis of the connotation and mechanism of ecological welfare and economic development, the sustainable index of China"s ecological welfare and economic development from 2004 to 2017 is constructed by using the comprehensive graphic method of full-arrangement polygon. On this basis, the dynamic relationship between ecological welfare and economic development is empirically studied by VAR model, and the key constraints of ecological welfare and economic development are excavated through barrier degree analysis. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the sustainable improvement of Ecological Welfare and the sustainable development of economy in the research period, and the two are Granger reasons for each other. Sustainable improvement of ecological welfare plays an important role in predicting the difference of sustainable economic development, while the contribution of sustainable economic development to the predicted variance of sustainable improvement of ecological welfare is relatively small.