载人空间站载荷元器件供应商评价——基于蒙特卡罗数据包络分析法

Evaluation of Payload Components Supplier for Manned Space Station: Based on Monte Carlo DEA Analysis

摘要:

载人空间站是高端装备典型代表，载荷设备具有技术复杂、可靠性要求高和时间节点计划性强等特点。载人空间站的研制按照“装备－分系统－设备－元器件”的结构开展，元器件质量、交付、价格的不确定性直接影响装备研制成果，因此对元器件供应商提出了更高的不确定性控制要求。针对载人空间站的工程需求，采用结合蒙特卡罗模拟和博弈交叉效率数据包络分析（DEA）模型的蒙特卡罗DEA法，研究在部分投入产出项的分布函数已知情况下决策单元效率值的分布函数，以期提供更全面可信的评价结果。并通过在某载人空间站承研单位的应用，进一步论证蒙特卡罗DEA法的有效性。

Abstract:

As the typical representative of high-end equipment, manned space station payload has the characteristics of complex technology, explicit scientific aims, high reliability requirement and strict time constraint. The development of manned space station is carried out according to the structure of "equipment-subsystem-equipment-component", the uncertainty of component production quality, delivery and price directly affects the development of equipment, and so higher uncertainty control requirements are put forward for component suppliers. To meet the engineering needs of manned space stations, this paper uses a Monte Carlo Data Envelopment Analysis (Monte Carlo DEA) model which integrates the Monte Carlo simulation and game cross-efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis to evaluate the efficiency distribution of each DMU when some inputs or outputs are stochastic variables, in order to provide more comprehensive and credible evaluation results. And through the application in a manned space station research unit, the paper further demonstrates the effectiveness of Monte Carlo DEA method.