医药科技成果价值评估方法探析——基于创新价值链的视角

Analysis on Value Evaluation Methods of Pharmaceutical Scientific and Technological Achievements: Based on the Perspective of Innovation Value Chain

摘要:

推进医药科技成果的有效转移转化，需要科学准确地评估医药科技成果价值，选择合适的评估方法尤为重要。以创新价值链为视角探索医药产出全环节，总结传统评估方法在面对医药科技成果的独特性中存在的弊端，有针对性地提出优化现有医药科技成果价值评估的3条思路：（1）充分考虑医药产出周期长、高风险的特点；（2）衡量好医药创新活动中决策的变动作用；（3）多结果综合分析医药产出价值 。最后，总结3种新评估手段在医药科技成果价值评估上的适用性：（1）风险修正型现值收益法将医药产出的研发和上市风险拆解，科学地修正了医药科技成果转化的风险因素；（2）实物期权法把医药创新活动中各阶段决策的影响纳入价值衡量中，更关注于医药科技成果的期权价值；（3）情景分析法分别评估不同转化结果下医药科技成果的价值及其发生概率，多情景综合判断医药科技成果总价值。

Abstract:

To promote the effective transfer and transformation of pharmaceutical scientific and technological achievements, it is necessary to scientifically and accurately evaluate the value of pharmaceutical scientific and technological achievements, and it is particularly important to select appropriate evaluation methods. This paper explores the whole process of pharmaceutical output from the perspective of innovation value chain, summarizes the shortcomings existing in traditional evaluation methods in the face of the uniqueness of pharmaceutical scientific and technological achievements, and puts forward three ideas to optimize the existing valuation methods of pharmaceutical scientific and technological achievements: (1) Considering the characteristics of long cycle and high risk of pharmaceutical output fully. (2)Measuring the role of change in decision in the process of pharmaceutical innovation activities. (3)Analysing the pharmaceutical output value with multiple results comprehensively. Finally, the applications of three new evaluation methods in the valuation of pharmaceutical scientific and technological achievements are summarized: (1)Risk-adjusted net present value separates R&D and listing risks of pharmaceutical output, the risks of transformation of pharmaceutical scientific and technological achievements are corrected scientifically. (2)Real options brings the influence of decision in different stages of pharmaceutical innovation activities into the value measurement, and pays more attention to the option value of pharmaceutical scientific and technological achievements. (3)Scenario analysis evaluates the value and probability of pharmaceutical scientific and technological achievements under different transformation results, then estimates the total value of pharmaceutical scientific and technological achievements by comprehensive judgment of multiple scenarios.