新技术革命背景下基于SIR-SCR模型的供应链风险传导新机理研究＊

Research on the new mechanism of supply chain risk transmission based onSIR-SCR model under the background of the new technology revolution

摘要:

新技术革命背景下,供应链网络的风险传导与扼制备受关注。该文在小世界网络视角下将病毒的传播模型SIR引入到供应链风险传导中,建立SIR-SCR模型阐述供应链风险传导的范围和影响因素。经模型分析与模拟仿真,该文认为在云计算的技术引导下,风险传导时间加快,范围越来越广；在移动互联网4G、5G的技术支持下,前期风险传导概率变大,风险传导的速度较之以往加快,并且风险传导峰值到来的时间提前,风险传导的概率对风险传导有显著的正相关作用；由于网络联盟的作用,风险的传导呈现一种倒W型特征,能对风险传导的范围和速度有扼制效果,但是在全球化采购,非核心业务外包的情形下,节点的利益联系更加紧密,单个节点的努力无法阻止风险在供应链中的传导,需要网络联盟共同发挥作用。最后该文从风险传导的时间、概率和企业自身恢复概率等角度为防范供应链风险传导提出建议。

Abstract:

Risk transmission and containment of supply chain network have attracted much attention. In this paper, virus transmission model SIR was introduced into supply chain risk transmission from the perspective of small world network, and SIR-SCR model was established to describe the transmission range of supply chain risk transmission and the factors affecting transmission. Through model analysis and simulation, this paper concludes that risk transmission time is accelerated and the scope is increasingly becoming wider under the guidance of cloud computing technology. With the technical support of 4G and 5G of mobile Internet, the higher the risk conduction probability in the early stage is, the faster the risk conduction speed. At the same time the peak of risk conduction is coming sooner. The probability of risk conduction has a significant positive correlation effect on risk conduction. Because of the network alliances the risk of transmission has a w-shaped feature, which can have limits on the scope and speed of risk. In the background of global procurement, outsourcing non-core businesses and the interests of the nodes closer together, a single node still can"t stop in the supply chain risk conduction and need network alliances to work together. Finally, this paper puts forward some Suggestions for preventing supply chain risk transmission from the time, probability and recovery probability of risk transmission.