从影响及调节的角度切入,采用SBM-ML指数法、面板门槛和面板向量自回归模型,厘清我国环境政策自深化稳定以来差异化环境规制工具与工业绿色发展之间的关系。结果显示：(1)命令控制型与公众自愿型环境规制工具对工业绿色发展的影响效应随规制强度增加呈倒“U”型趋势,但前者影响更大；市场激励型则与规制强度成反比。(2)短期内命令控制型与公众自愿型环境规制工具对工业绿色发展的调节效应灵活且相反,但后者幅度更大；长期内则有市场激励型持续正向调节。至此,提出综合差异化环境规制工具建立一个平衡、动态协调的环境规制混合系统的建议。

From the perspective of influence and regulation, this paper adopts the SBM-ML index method, panel threshold model and panel vector autoregression model to clarify the relationship between different environmental regulation tools and industrial green development since the deepening and stability of China"s environmental policy.The results show that: (1) the impact of command-control regulation tool and public-voluntary regulation tool on green industrial development is inverted "U" type with the increase of regulatory intensity, while the former has greater influence effect. The market-driven regulation tool is inversely proportional to the regulatory strength. (2) In the short term, the command-control regulation tool and public-voluntary regulation tool have a flexible and opposite regulating effect on green industrial development, while the latter has a larger range. In the long term, the market-driven regulation tool has a continuous and positive adjustment. Thus, a balanced and dynamically coordinated hybrid system of environmental regulation is proposed by combining different environmental regulation tools.

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国家自然科学基金面上项目“社会-技术变迁驱动能源转型的动力机制及治理政策研究”(项目编号：71874119)；山西省软科学研究项目“基于创新驱动视角的企业创新成长机制与激励政策研究”(项目编号：2017041013-5)