[关键词]
[摘要]
多元利益冲突是特大型工程项目社会稳定风险的根源。使用贝叶斯网络作为工具,以贝叶斯网络中的节点代替利益相关者和利益诉求风险,连接节点有向边代替利益冲突,进而构建预警模型。实现了基于多元利益冲突对社会稳定风险的预警,从利益相关者视角对社会稳定风险的预防。实证结果表明：该预警模型能较好的分析工程建设期间利益冲突的变化,定位风险源泉,对降低工程建设所在地社会稳定性风险,具有一定参考借鉴意义。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Multi-interest conflict is the root of social stability risk of super-large-scale engineering projects. Using Bayesian network as a tool, the node in Bayesian network replaces stakeholders and interest claim risk, and the connection node has a directed edge instead of conflict of interest, so as to build an early warning model. It realizes the early warning of social stability risk based on multi-interest conflict, and prevents social stability risk from the perspective of stakeholders. The empirical results show that the early warning model can better analyze the changes of interest conflicts during the construction period, locate the source of risk, and reduce the risk of social stability in the construction site, which has a certain reference significance.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
国家自然科学基金“面向多元利益冲突放大的特大型工程项目社会稳定风险形成机理与治理研究”(项目编号：71573072)；国家自然科学基金“社会网络媒介化中重大工程环境损害的社会稳定风险传播机理与防范策略”(项目编号：71603070)；江苏高校哲学社会科学优秀创新团队“一带一路”战略背景下澜湄合作创新与风险管控(项目编号：2017ZSTD002)。 1,3
