基于多元利益冲突的特大型工程项目社会稳定风险预警研究

Research on Early Warning of Social Stability Risk of Extra Large Engineering Projects Based on Multiple Interest Conflicts

摘要:

多元利益冲突是特大型工程项目社会稳定风险的根源。使用贝叶斯网络作为工具,以贝叶斯网络中的节点代替利益相关者和利益诉求风险,连接节点有向边代替利益冲突,进而构建预警模型。实现了基于多元利益冲突对社会稳定风险的预警,从利益相关者视角对社会稳定风险的预防。实证结果表明：该预警模型能较好的分析工程建设期间利益冲突的变化,定位风险源泉,对降低工程建设所在地社会稳定性风险,具有一定参考借鉴意义。

Abstract:

Multi-interest conflict is the root of social stability risk of super-large-scale engineering projects. Using Bayesian network as a tool, the node in Bayesian network replaces stakeholders and interest claim risk, and the connection node has a directed edge instead of conflict of interest, so as to build an early warning model. It realizes the early warning of social stability risk based on multi-interest conflict, and prevents social stability risk from the perspective of stakeholders. The empirical results show that the early warning model can better analyze the changes of interest conflicts during the construction period, locate the source of risk, and reduce the risk of social stability in the construction site, which has a certain reference significance.