开展影响电力结构的能源技术的识别与评价,对于深化电力改革,发展新能源具有重要意义。本文从电力产业链角度出发,界定了46项可能对电力行业发展产生影响的能源技术,通过层级分析法建立指标评价体系和确定权重,以技术领域专家调查问卷为基础,采用模糊综合评价法对能源技术在不同时间节点对电力结构的影响程度进行分析。结果显示,近期对我国电力结构高影响度的技术主要是集中式发电技术,到2030年后,影响程度高的能源技术转向分布式能源技术,且以可再生能源为主。在此基础上,对电力集团应重点关注的储能、氢能、分布式能源及能源互联网技术领域给出了布局建议。

It is of great significance to carry out research on the selection and evaluation of key technologies that will affect the power structure in the future. Starting from the power industry chain, this paper defines 46 energy technologies that may affect the development of the power structure industry. Based on the questionnaire of experts from various technical fields, an index evaluation system were determined by analytic hierarchical process(AHP) method, and the influence degrees of energy technology in 2020, 2025 and 2035 were ranked by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the technologies that have high influence on China"s power structure recently is mainly centralized power generation technology, and after 2030, it will turn to distributed energy technology and mainly renewable energy. Based on the research conclusions, this paper suggests that power groups should focus on energy storage, hydrogen energy, distributed energy and energy Internet, and recommends specific development planning strategies for them.

TK-9;C934

广东省自然科学基金项目“碳排放权交易机制对广东电力企业竞争力的影响研究”（2016A030313175）；广东省省级科技计划项目“新能源产业颠覆性技术的识别与产业发展政策建议”（2019A101002043）；中国科学院洁净能源创新研究院合作基金项目 “变革性洁净能源关键技术对我国碳排放达峰目标的贡献及其减排路径研究”（DNL180101）。