“一带一路”沿线国家要素禀赋对中国OFDI的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Factor Endowments of China along the Belt and Road on OFDI

摘要:

“一带一路”沿线国家要素禀赋差异明显。本文测度了2003-2017年“一带一路”沿线51个国家的劳动力要素、资本要素、技术要素和自然资源要素，构建了要素禀赋指数来反映沿线各国的要素禀赋整体状况，进而计算了各国的资本劳动比、技术劳动比及自然资源劳动比，并根据要素充裕度将沿线国家分为七种类型：资本技术资源充裕型、资本技术充裕资源稀缺型、资本资源充裕技术稀缺型、资本充裕技术资源稀缺型、技术充裕资本资源稀缺型、资源充裕资本技术稀缺型和资本技术资源稀缺型。最后，本文运用动态GMM模型分析了沿线各国要素禀赋差异对我国OFDI的影响，结果表明：（1）“一带一路”沿线国家要素禀赋差异影响着中国对外直接投资；（2）“一带一路”倡议下技术要素对我国OFDI及沿线国家发展影响最大；（3）不同地区要素禀赋优势不同，东南亚地区劳动力要素明显；蒙俄和南亚地区技术要素和资源要素明显；南西亚地区资本要素明显；中东欧与中亚地区资源要素明显。

Abstract:

The factor endowments of countries along the “Belt and Road” are significantly different. This article measures the labor, capital, technology, and natural resource factors of the 51 countries along the “Belt and Road” from 2003 to 2017, and constructs an index of factor endowment to reflect the overall state of factor endowment in each country along the line, and then calculates the capital labor ratio, technical labor ratio and natural resource labor ratio of each country. The countries along the route are divided into seven types according to the factor sufficiency: capital technology resources abundance type, capital technology abundance resources scarcity type, capital resources abundance technology scarcity type, capital abundance technology resources scarcity type, technology abundance capital resource scarcity type, resource abundance capital technology scarcity type, and capital technology resource scarcity type. Finally, this paper uses a dynamic GMM model to analyze the impact of factor endowment differences in countries along the line on China's OFDI. The results show that: (1) The difference in factor endowments of countries along the “Belt and Road” affects China ’s foreign direct investment; (2)Under the “Belt and Road” initiative ,technical factors have the greatest impact on the development of OFDI and the countries along the route; (3) Different regions have different endowment advantages, and the labor factors in Southeast Asia are obvious; the technical factors and resource elements in Mongolia, Russia and South Asia are obvious; capital factors in South West Asia are obvious; resource factors in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia are obvious.