人口老龄化对我国科技创新的影响分析

An analysis of the impact of Population Aging on China's Technological Innovation

摘要:

基于2006-2016年我国30个省份的省级面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型和IV-GMM模型测度人口老龄化对科技创新的影响，并纳入空间因素进行稳健性检验。结果表明：人口老龄化与我国的科技创新水平之间存在显著的倒U型曲线关系，“人力资本水平”和“资本-劳动力禀赋”是人口老龄化影响科技创新的两个中介效应。同时，科技创新存在显著的正向空间溢出效应，人口老龄化可以通过溢出效应对其他省份的科技创新产生间接影响。因而在老龄化时期，应该注重提升人力资本水平，促进老龄人口再就业，提高资源配置效率，促进区域协同创新。

Abstract:

Based on the provincial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2016, this paper used the two-way fixed effect model and IV-GMM model to measure the impact of population aging on technological innovation, and included spatial factors for robustness test. The results show that there is a significant inverted u-shaped curve relationship between population aging and technological innovation in China, and population aging will indirectly affect technological innovation through two mediation effect, namely human capital level and capital-labor endowment. At the same time, scientific and technological innovation has a significant positive spatial spillover effect, through which the population aging can have an indirect impact on scientific and technological innovation in other provinces. Therefore, in the aging period, the government should focus on improving the level of human capital, promoting the re-employment of the aging population, improving the efficiency of resource allocation and promoting regional collaborative innovation.