为解决现有山区暴雨-地质、市区暴雨-洪涝灾害模型在链式反应推理、精度上的不足，本文分析其演化规律，结合贝叶斯复杂网络理论，构建灾害链推理模型。通过国内灾害历史数据和相关文献丰富灾害节点及状态,并据此构建灾害链拓扑结构，应用EM算法求得条件概率表，基于因果推理实现次生灾害和基础设施损毁等级的预测，并以湖南省宁远县滑坡洪灾灾害进行实例验证。结果表明：实例的预测结果与灾害实际情况吻合较好，Brier 检验B 值小于0.6，所构建的暴雨-地质、暴雨-洪涝灾害链推理模型具有可行性，可为国家减灾委等部门提供及时断链减灾的参考。

In order to solve the deficiencies of the chain reaction reasoning and accuracy in the existing mountainous storm-geology, urban storm-flood disaster models, this paper analyzes its evolutional process and combines the Bayesian complex network theory to construct a disaster chain reasoning model. Through domestic disaster historical data and related literature, disaster nodes and statuses are enriched and then construct a disaster chain topology based on that. The conditional probability table was obtained by applying the EM algorithm. Using the causal reasoning, the secondary disasters and infrastructure damage levels was predicted finally and the data on landslide flood disaster in Ningyuan County, Hunan Province was tested as a example. The results show that the prediction results are in good agreement with the actual situation of the example. The Brier test B value is less than 0.6. The constructed storm-geology, storm-flood disaster chain reasoning model is feasible, and it can provide timely reference for the National Disaster Reduction Center of China to mitigate disaster.

国家自然科学基金项目“基于数据驱动的滑坡地质灾害预测及其应急决策研究-以长江经济带三峡库区为例”(71874165) 国家自然科学基金项目“灾害多级联动模式下城市群综合承灾能力的评价与仿真研究”(71573237)教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目“大数据背景下突发公共事件的关联关系挖掘与预测”(15YJA630019) 教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目“应急救援队伍优化调配与合作救援仿真研究”（20JHQ094）湖北省科学技术厅科研软科学项目“三峡库区滑坡地质灾害防治措施调配及防治工程综合经济效益评估”（2019ADC154）