农业转型发展：科技进步、绿色全要素生产率 与农业碳排放

Agricultural transformation and development: scientific and technological progress, green total factor productivity And agricultural carbon emissions

摘要:

科技进步是农业绿色转型发展的重要支撑，全要素生产率提升是农业绿色转型发展的关键，而农业碳排放则是其评价的核心指标之一。基于泛长三角4个省（市）26个研究区域（“25地级市+上海”）面板数据，通过SBM模型和系数法，测算2009—2018年该研究区域的碳排放量和农业绿色全要素生产率，并利用ARDL模型分析科技进步、全要素生产率与农业碳排放关系。研究发现，农业科技进步在一定程度上对农业碳排放具有抑制效应，但效果不显著，且长短期视角下科学技术发展呈现不同效果；而农业绿色全要素生产率与碳排放呈现明显的负相关关系，并且短期视角下农业碳排放当期量会对未来3年碳排放强度产生影响。我们可以通过农资产品投入减量增效、政策制定加大倾斜和绿色农业科技研发推广来提升农业绿色全要素生产率，从而减少农业碳排放，顺利实现农业绿色转型发展。

Abstract:

science and technology is an important support for the development of agricultural green transformation. The improvement of total factor productivity is the key to the development of agricultural green transformation, and agricultural carbon emission is one of the core indicators . Based on the panel data of 26 research areas in 4 provinces (cities) of the Pan Yangtze River Delta, through SBM model and coefficient method, the carbon emissions and agricultural green total factor productivity of the research area in 2009-2018 are calculated, and the relationship between scientific and technological progress, total factor productivity and agricultural carbon emissions is analyzed by using ARDL model. It is found that agricultural science and technology has a restraining effect on agricultural carbon emissions,but the effect is not significant, and shows different in the long-term and short-term; while the total factor productivity of agricultural green has a significant negative correlation with carbon emissions, and the current amount of agricultural carbon emissions in the short-term perspective will have an impact on the carbon emission intensity in the next three years. We can improve productivity of agricultural green by reducing the input of agricultural products, increasing the inclination of policy-making, and promoting the research of green agricultural science and technology, so as to reduce agricultural carbon emissions and smoothly realize development of agricultural green.