中国交通运输碳减排潜力研究

Study of the Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of China

摘要:

本研究在预测中国交通运输需求量的基础上,量化设置了运输结构优化和交通技术进步影响参数,设计了基准情景、结构优化情景、技术进步情景、低碳情景,测算了中国交通运输的碳减排潜力。研究显示,受新冠疫情影响2020年交通运输碳排放明显回落,若疫情逐步有效控制,交通运输仍将保持增长趋势,到2030年,中国交通运输技术进步的减排潜力为8.20%,结构优化的减排潜力为7.08%,低碳情景下减排潜力为14.45%。低碳情景下,公路民航运输碳排放显著下降,水路城市客运碳排放微降,铁路运输排放上升。公路、民航运输的减排潜力为23.71%、10.43%,公路民航领域是交通运输行业减排的重点领域；水路运输、城市客运减排潜力为2.76%、4.40%,技术进步可以抵消结构优化带来碳排放增量；铁路低碳情景的碳排放高于基准情景增加20.08%,是由于结构优化使得铁路货运周转量大幅提升,远超过铁路技术进步带来的减排效果,但对于交通运输系统整体起到了最优碳减排效果。

关键词:交通运输;碳排放;减排潜力

Abstract:

based on the prediction of China"s transportation demand, this study quantified the impact parameters of transportation structure optimization and transportation technology progress, designed the benchmark, structural optimization, technological progress and low-carbon scenario, and calculated the carbon emission reduction potential of China"s transportation. According to the research, due to the impact of the coronavirus, the carbon emission of transportation will fall significantly in 2020. If the coronavirus is gradually and effectively controlled, the transportation will still maintain the growth trend. By 2030, the emissions-reduction potential of transport technology improvement,structural optimization and low-carbon scenario is 8.20%, 7.08% and 14.45%.Under the low carbon scenario, the carbon emissions of road and civil aviation transport significantly decreased. The emission reduction potential of road, waterway, civil aviation and urban passenger transport is 23.71%, 2.76% 10.43% and 4.40%. The carbon emissions of the railway low-carbon scenario increased by 20.08% above the baseline scenario, It is because of structural optimization that the turnover of railway freight is greatly increased, which far exceeds the emission reduction effect brought by the progress of railway technology, but plays the optimal carbon emission reduction effect on the whole transportation system.

Key words:transportation; Carbon emissions; Emissions reduction potential