各省(市)R&D投入强度的演变规律及预测研究

Research on the evolution and prediction of R & D input intensity

摘要:

本文通过分析我国各省(市)R D投入强度的变化趋势,总结各地区不同水平不同阶段的变化特征,探索其演变规律,在此基础上,采用趋势外推法预测2030年各省(市)R D投入强度,为我国研发投入的增长、预判创新型国家建设水平提供借鉴。研究结果表明,目前我国有2/3的地区R D投入强度滞后于当前工业化程度；R D投入强度低于1%和超过2.15%的地区符合“国际R D强度增长一般规律”,但在1%-2.15%之间的大部分地区未出现快速增长；若各省(市)继续加大研发投入,预计2030年有2/5的地区R D投入强度将超过2.8%,为我国进入创新型国家前列和世界科技强国奠定了坚实的基础。

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the change trend of R D input intensity in each province (city) of China, summarizes the change characteristics of different levels and stages in each region, and explores its evolution law. On this basis, the trend extrapolation method is used to predict the R D input intensity of each province (city) in 2030, which provides reference for the growth of R D investment in China and the prediction of the construction level of innovative country. The results show that the R D investment intensity in two-thirds of China"s regions lags behind the current level of industrialization; regions with R D investment intensity lower than 1% and more than 2.15% conform to the "general law of international R D intensity growth", but most regions between 1% and 2.15% do not have rapid growth; if provinces (cities) continue to increase R D investment, it is expected that two fifths of regions will have R D investment intensity higher than that in 2030 2.8%, which has laid a solid foundation for China to enter the forefront of innovative countries and the world"s leading country in science and technology.