研究产业政策演化特征与规律具有重要的理论和现实意义。鉴于新兴产业具有的高度不确定性,本文基于试探性治理理论研究新一代信息技术产业政策的演化特征。本文首先构建了由治理利基、治理范围、治理过程、治理目标、治理时间和治理主体六要素构成的分析框架,进而对2011-2019年发布的新一代信息技术产业政策文本进行编码和试探性程度演化特征的分析。研究得到如下结论：1)对单个政策要素演化而言,治理利基与治理主体的试探性程度呈逐步下降的趋势,治理过程和治理目标试探性程度呈先增后减的趋势,治理时间和治理范围的试探性程度呈先减后增再减的变化；2)对政策整体演化而言,新一代信息技术产业政策的试探性程度经历了“低—高—中”的变化轨迹,可将其分为启动期、扩张期和均衡期三个阶段。

Studying the evolution of industrial policy has significant theoretical and practical implications. Given the high uncertainty of emerging industries, this paper studies the evolution of policies in the new-generation information technology industry based on tentative governance theory. To begin with, we construct an analysis framework composed of six policy elements: governance niche, governance scope, governance process, governance goal, governance time, and governance subject. Subsequently, we encode and measure the tentative degree of policy texts in the new-generation of information technology industry that released between 2011 and 2019. The results are as follows: 1) for the evolution of single policy element, the tentative degree of governance niche and governance subject declined steadily, and the governance process and governance goal rises firstly and then decreases, and the governance time and governance scope drop down firstly, increase followed by, fall finally；2) for the overall evolution of policy, the tentative degree witnesses a tendency of “low level - high level - middle level”, and it can be divided into three stages: initial stage, expansion stage, and equilibrium stage.

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国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）