基于改进的Laspeyres分解模型的碳排放影响因素解析

Decomposition of Carbon Emissions Influence Factors Based on the Improved Laspeyres Decomposition Model

摘要:

在投入产出分析的基础上，构建碳排放影响因素的一种SDA形式——改进的Laspeyres分解模型，对我国2005-2018年间的碳排放变动进行结构分解与剖析，定量测算出引发变动的经济效应和技术效应。结果显示：投入总量效应是导致碳排放增加的关键因素，技术进步对碳排放有显著抑制作用，最终投入结构效应对碳排放影响为正，但2013年开始逐渐转变为负向效应，投入结构效应与高耗能产业比重有着极强的相关关系。在此基础上，为当期我国严峻减排责任下的经济发展道路提供必要的政策建议。

Abstract:

On the basis of input-output analysis, build an improved Laspeyres decomposition model which is a form of SDA that influence factors of carbon emissions, then have a structure decomposition and analyzes of the carbon emissions changes in China from 2005 to 2018, measuring the economic effect and technical effect which impact carbon emissions respectively. The results show that the effect of total demand is a key factor which could lead to an increase in carbon emissions, technological progress had a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions, the final demand structure effect of carbon emissions is positive, but it turned into a negative effect gradually after 2013, Structure effect of input have a strong correlation with the proportion of energy-intensive industries. On this basis, to provide some necessary policy recommendations for the economic development road under the severe reduction responsibility of China.