重大风险冲击下的创新生态系统演化仿真研究

Research on Symbiotic Evolution Model and Simulation of Innovative Ecosystem Under the Impact of Major Risks

摘要:

类似COVID-19疫情的重大风险会对各类型创新生态系统形成冲击。研究针对上述极端情景建立了动力学模型,求解了不同风险冲击情况下系统内创新主体之间共生演化的均衡点及稳定条件,并对不同共生模式下的演化进行了仿真分析。研究表明：陷入系统性衰退时,创新生态系统最终会消亡,但主体之间的竞争模式能为创新生态系统争取到更多的生存时间；而当陷入局部性衰退时,创新生态系统最终收敛于未受影响主体的自然上限。主体之间初始增长和衰退速度的博弈,会影响创新生态系统的演化路径。最后从创新生态系统的宏观治理和微观参与组织两个层面提出了建议和对策。

Abstract:

Major risks like the COVID-19 epidemic will impact various types of innovation ecosystems.In this paper, a dynamic model is established to solve the equilibrium points and stable conditions of symbiotic evolution among innovative populations in the system under different risks, and the evolution under different symbiotic modes is simulated and analyzed. Research shows that innovation ecosystems will eventually die out when they fall into a systemic recession, but competition between species can buy them more time to survive. And when it falls into local decline, the innovation ecosystem finally converges to the natural upper limit of the unaffected population.