我国城市创新规模的分布及结构特征——齐夫定律视角下的定量研究

Distribution and Structural Characteristics of the Innovational Scale of Cities in China：an Empirical Analysis from the Perspective of Zipf`s Law

摘要:

我国城市创新发展已经持续一段时间,为了找准以何种规模的城市为下一阶段创新政策的着力点,有必要总结前一阶段城市创新发展的成绩和经验。利用1995-2018年的城市数据定量研究我国城市创新规模的分布特征和结构特征,有利于了解城市创新规模的演变规律,掌握其内在机制。三参数齐夫模型与城市创新规模数据较好的拟合效果说明我国城市创新规模的分布在总体上符合齐夫定律。城市创新规模分布的规模指数呈上升趋势,显示不同规模城市的创新规模生长出现差异化,且这种差异逐渐扩大。城市创新规模等级结构模型的拟合情况说明我国城市创新规模有明显的结构特征。而齐夫模型平移指数的变化和等级结构模型的拟合情况说明,虽然我国城市创新规模在不同的阶段有不同类型等级结构,但是长期来看,我国城市创新规模等级结构具有扁平化的趋势。

Abstract:

The urbanization driven by innovation in China has lasted for a period of time. In order to find out which scale of the city will be the focus of the next stage of innovational policy, it is necessary to sum up the achievements and experience that accumulated in the previous stage of urbanization. This paper used the data of China`s cities from 1995 to 2018 to quantitatively study the distribution characteristics and structural characteristics of the innovational scale of cities in China, which is conducive to understanding the evolution law of urban innovation scale and mastering its internal mechanism. The fitness of the three-parameter Zipf model shows that the distribution of the innovational scale of city is in accordance with Zipf"s law in general. On the whole, the scale index of the scale distribution of urban innovation shows that the growth of innovation scale of different scale cities is different, and the difference is gradually expanding. The fitness of the hierarchy structure of the innovational scale of city shows that the scale of urban innovation in China presents obvious structural characteristics. And the change of translation index of Zipf model and the fitness of hierarchy structure show that, in the long run, the scale structure of the innovational scale of cities in China has the trend of flattening although the scale of urban innovation in China presents different types of grade structure in different stages.