基于多因素综合的国防关键技术选择模型研究

Study on the Selection Model of Defense Critical Technology Based on Multiple Index Analysis

摘要:

针对国防领域关键技术选择应用需求，在对国防关键技术的基本特征、主要选择方法和主要国家经验启示进行研究分析基础上，立足我国发展和军队建设实际，从应用关键、发展急需、技术可行、封锁受限和辐射带动等5个维度提出了国防关键技术选择应遵循的基本准则和指标体系。研究认为，国防关键技术选择体现的是一个选择决策过程，完全按照指标定量排序可能会产生刚性遗漏或不合理情况，需要“人”的主动参与和校正以更好反应军事需求和国情军情，为此，本文综合数据定量支撑和专家经验判断，构建了基于“准则约减+专家论证”的多因素综合国防关键技术选择模型，为开展国防关键技术选择实践提供了理论方法支撑。

Abstract:

Based on the research of the basic characteristics, main methods and foreign experience of defense critical technologies, this paper puts forward the basic criteria and index system that should be followed in the selection of defense critical technologies from five dimensions of application key, development urgent need, technology feasibility, blockade limited and radiation driven. According to the research, the selection of defense critical technology is a decision-making process, which may lead to omission or unreasonable situation if it is completely ordered according to the quantitative indicators, therefore, this paper constructs a multi factor comprehensive evaluation model based on "criteria reduction + expert argumentation" by integrating quantitative data support and expert experience judgment, which provides support for the practice of defense critical technology selection.