基于SD的重大工程项目治理动态仿真研究

Dynamic Simulation of Governance of Mega-projects Based on SD

摘要:

在深入解析我国重大工程项目特殊情境基础上，识别重大工程项目治理机制维度，并基于系统动力学（SD）探讨重大工程项目治理效应非线性涌现规律。研究结果表明:在中国情境下，重大工程项目治理机制是由契约治理、关系治理和行政治理机制三种治理机制共同构成。在重大工程项目实施的周期中，前期阶段，契约治理和行政治理占主导地位，推动着项目的发展；中后期阶段，参与方之间的沟通交流加强，信任度提升，关系治理的作用明显，有效推动治理绩效的提高，并超越契约治理和行政治理占据了主导地位，契约治理和行政治理水平逐渐下降。在每一种治理机制中，收益分配、关系维护和政府监管尤其是关系维护对治理绩效的影响相对较大。该研究可以为项目各参与方提升重大工程项目治理能力和实现项目成功提供参考依据。

Abstract:

Based on an in-depth analysis of the special situation of mega-projects in China, the dimensions of governance mechanisms of mega-projects are identified, and the nonlinear emergence of governance effect of mega-projects are explored based on system dynamics. The results of the research indicate that the governance mechanism of mega-projects is composed of contract governance, relationship governance, and administrative governance in Chinese context. In the cycle of the implementation of mega-projects, in the early stage, contract governance and administrative governance dominate and promote the development of the project. In the middle and late stages, communication and trust are enhanced among the parties, and the role of relationship governance effectively promotes the improvement of project performance. It surpasses the contract governance and administrative governance and occupies the dominant position, the level of contract governance and administrative governance gradually declined. In each governance mechanism, income distribution, relationship maintenance, and government supervision, especially relationship maintenance, have a relatively large impact on governance performance. The research can provide reference for project participants to improve the governance capacity of mega-projects and achieve project success.