基于PSR模型的中国大气污染防治技术推广效果评价

Effect evaluation of air pollution control technology extension in China based on PSR Model

摘要:

为量化评估我国大气污染防治技术推广效果,本文基于“压力－状态－响应” (PSR)模型原理,首次构建了中国大气污染防治技术推广效果评价指标体系,测算了2005-2017 年中国大气污染防治技术推广综合指数,评价了技术推广效果,并采用灰色关联度法分析各指标关联度。结果显示,技术推广综合指数由2005年的0.13快速增长到2014年的0.69后略有下滑至2017年的0.62,技术推广效果逐步趋于良好。技术市场成交额、政策引导、科研和开发机构研究与试验发展人员是影响技术推广效果最主要的三个因素。指标体系为量化评价大气污染防治技术推广效果,提出促进技术推广的建议提供了技术方法和科学依据。

Abstract:

To evaluate the effect of air pollution control technology extension in Chin quantitatively, an index system was first built based on "stress-state-response" (PSR) model. The technology extension index from 2005 to 2017 was measured to evaluate technology extension effect. The gray correlation method was used to analyze correlation degree. Results showed that the technology extension index rose from 0.13 in 2005 to 0.69 in 2014, and then declined to 0.62 in 2017. The technology extension effect tended to be good. Technology market turnover, policy guidance, research institutions staff were the first three factors affecting the effect of technology extension. The index system provided technical methods for quantitatively evaluating the extension effect and extension suggestions