基于模糊实物期权的众创空间价值评估研究

Research on the Valuation of Makerspace Based on Fuzzy Real Options——Taking Dark Horse as an Example

摘要:

在大众创业、万众创新的大背景下，众创空间作为一种新型的共享型、平台型创业服务企业，近年来发展迅速。当前众创空间在争取政府政策支持、开展并购转让与上市业务、拓宽融资渠道、引进优质创新创业项目等诸多方面遭遇发展瓶颈，这些问题的解决都离不开对其进行准确的价值评估。在借鉴模糊数学理论对实物期权模型进行修正的基础上，把自由现金流折现模型和实物期权模型结合起来，构建基于模糊实物期权的众创空间价值评估综合模型，从而更准确地对众创空间的整体价值进行评估，即运用自由现金流折现模型评估众创空间的经营性资产价值，运用模糊实物期权法评估众创空间的实物期权价值。为了验证众创空间价值评估综合模型的可行性，选取众创空间行业里极具代表性的创业黑马作为案例进行实证分析，并将评估结果分别与单纯应用实物期权定价模型得出的评估结果以及创业黑马在评估基准日的市值进行比较。结果表明，应用改进后的综合模型计算出的创业黑马的企业价值更接近评估基准日的市值。

Abstract:

In the context of mass entrepreneurship and innovation, makerspace as a new type of shared and platform entrepreneurial service company, has developed rapidly in recent years. At present, makerspace is facing many problems such as seeking government policy support, conducting mergers and acquisitions and listing business, expanding financing channels, and introducing high-quality innovation and entrepreneurship projects. These problems cannot be solved without accurate valuation. Based on the fuzzy mathematics theory to modify the real option model, the FCFF model and the real option model are combined to build a comprehensive real-estate valuation model based on fuzzy real options. The overall value of makerspace is evaluated, that is, the FCFF model is used to evaluate the operating asset value of makerspace, and the real option value of makerspace is evaluated by the fuzzy real option method. In order to verify the feasibility of the comprehensive model of makerspace valuation, a representative Dark Horse in makerspace industry was selected as a case for empirical analysis, and compare the valuation results with the valuation results obtained by simply using the real option pricing model and the market value of Dark Horse on the valuation base date. The results show that the enterprise value of Dark Horse calculated by using the improved comprehensive model is closer to the market value on the valuation base date.