摘S要：生态风险的分析和评价是生态状况调控与改善的客观依据,也是生态安全与风险研究的重要内容。本文首先依据PSR理论,并结合煤矿资源型城市特有的生态影响因素,从生态环境的压力、状态、和响应这三个角度建立相应指标体系；然后提出云模型评价方法, 并给出整体评价流程；最后以煤矿资源型城市徐州为例,应用该方法进行风险评价实证分析。结果表明：徐州市综合生态风险已由最初的“高风险”过渡至“低风险”水平,大致经历了高风险—较高风险—较低风险—低风险的变化过程,整体呈现出良好的发展态势。

The analysis and evaluation of ecological risk is not only the objective basis for the regulation and improvement of ecological conditions, but also the important content of ecological security and risk research. Based on the PSR theory and combined with the unique ecological factors of coal resource-based cities, this paper establishes the corresponding index system from the three aspects of the pressure, state and response of the ecological environment. Then it puts forward the Cloud model evaluation method, and gives the overall evaluation process. Finally, taking Xuzhou, a coal resource-based City, as an example, it applies the method to carry out the empirical analysis of risk evaluation. The results show that the comprehensive ecological risk of Xuzhou City has changed from the initial "high risk" to the "low risk" level, showing a good development trend as a whole.

国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(19AGL030)；江苏省研究生科研创新项目(KYCX20_2071)