基于2000-2019年江西省相关时间序列数据,运用VAR模型分析农业科技创新、技术效率与农业经济发展之间的动态关系。研究结果表明：农业科技创新对农业经济发展的相互效果是正向的,而技术进步对农业经济发展的相互作用结果复杂,在不同时期的作用和方向不一致。相对于技术进步,农业科技创新对农业经济发展的贡献率较大。农业科技创新、农业技术效率与农业经济增长之间存在长期稳定均衡的关系,但农业科技创新投入对农业经济增长的短期影响更为显著。因此,要发挥农业科技创新与技术效率之间的相互促进作用,以科技创新促进农业经济发展,推动农业可持续发展。

Based on the relevant time series data of Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2019, the dynamic relationship between agricultural science and technology innovation, technological efficiency and agricultural economic development is analyzed by using VAR model. The results show that the mutual effect of agricultural science and technology innovation on agricultural economic development is positive, while the interaction result of technological progress on agricultural economic development is complex, and the function and direction of agricultural science and technology innovation are inconsistent in different periods. Compared with technological progress, agricultural scientific and technological innovation contributes greatly to the development of agricultural economy. There is a long-term stable and balanced relationship between agricultural science and technology innovation, agricultural technology efficiency and agricultural economic growth, but the short-term impact of agricultural science and technology innovation investment on agricultural economic growth is more significant. Therefore, it is necessary to give full play to the interaction between agricultural scientific and technological innovation and technological efficiency, to promote the development of agricultural economy with scientific and technological innovation, and to promote the sustainable development of agriculture.

国家自然科学(71840013),江西省高校人文社会科学研究基地招标项目(JD17065)