复杂装备供应链确信可靠性评价与优化研究

Research on Belief Reliability Evaluation and Optimization of Complex Equipment Supply Chain

摘要:

提出一种基于确信可靠性理论的复杂装备供应链可靠性评价与优化方法。从供货质量、产品交付和研制成本三个维度建立成员企业可靠性评价指标，分别基于概率测度和不确定测度构建通用零部件和新研零部件供应商的确信可靠性评价模型。通过计算累积可靠性消除新研零部件供应商之间的相互影响，利用系统结构函数给出了供应链确信可靠性评价方法。结合成本目标建立复杂装备供应链可靠性优化模型。以简化的飞机研制供应链为例进行应用分析。

Abstract:

Based on belief reliability theory, this paper proposes a reliability evaluation model for complex equipment supply chain considering its development characteristics and uncertainties. The reliability evaluation indexes of member enterprises are established from three dimensions of quality reliability, delivery reliability and development cost reliability. Then the reliability evaluation model of general parts suppliers and newly developed parts suppliers are built based on probability measuring and uncertainty measuring respectively. On the supply chain system level, the reliability interaction between newly developed parts suppliers that results from shared knowledge and information is eliminated by calculating cumulative reliability. The reliability evaluation model of complex equipment supply chain is presented with system structure function. Considering supply chain cost, two mathematical programming models are established to maximize supply chain reliability and minimize additional cost budget respectively. The optimal capacity improvement and budget supplement strategies of supply chain members are obtained. A simplified aircraft development supply chain is analyzed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. The results show that supply chain reliability can be guaranteed even if alternative suppliers with low reliability are selected, and the increasement of supply chain reliability is diminishing with the increase of additional cost budgeting. This paper will provide a theoretical support for evaluating the reliability of complex equipment supply chain, identifying system weak links and implementing reliability optimization.