人口老龄化、区域技术创新和产业结构升级----基于面板门限回归模型的研究

Population Aging,Regional Technological Innovation and the Upgrade of Industrial Structure：A Study Based on the Threshold Regression Model

摘要:

基于全国31个省市2000—2017年间的面板数据，运用tobit模型和门限效应回归，研究在创新驱动战略背景下，人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响效应，识别区域技术创新在其中的调节作用以及门限作用。研究表明：就全国整体而言，人口老龄化显著促进了产业结构高级化，对产业结构合理化有正向影响，但不显著。此外，区域技术创新能力在促进东、中、西三个地区产业结构高级化时的调节作用显著，但在促进产业结构合理化时，其调节作用只在东、中部地区显著，对西部地区则不显著。对于全国和东部地区而言，区域技术创新在老龄化对产业结构高级化的影响中表现出双门限效应，而在促进产业结构合理化时只表现出单一门限特征，即随着区域技术创新能力跨过单一门限值时，老龄化对产业结构合理化的影响效应由负转变为正。对于中西部地区而言，区域技术创新在老龄化对产业结构“两化”的影响中均表现出单一门限特征，且只有当区域技术创新能力在一个特定的范围内，老龄化才会显著促进产业结构“两化”的发展。

关键词:人口老龄化;产业结构升级;区域技术创新;门限回归

Abstract:

Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017, Tobit model and threshold effect regression are used to study the effect of population aging on the upgrade of industrial structure under the background of innovation-driven strategy, and identify the moderating role and threshold effect of regional technological innovation. The research shows that, as a whole, the population aging has significantly promoted the advancement of industrial structure, which has a positive impact on the rationalization of industrial structure, but it is not significant. In addition, the regional technological innovation plays a significant role in promoting the advancement of industrial structure of the eastern, central, and western regions, but when promoting the rationalization of industrial structure, its moderating role is only significant in the eastern and central regions, but not in the western region. For the whole and the eastern region, regional technological innovation shows a double threshold effect in the impact of population aging on the advancement of industrial structure, while it only shows a single threshold feature when promoting the rationalization of the industrial structure, that is, as the regional technological innovation capability crosses a single threshold, the effect of population aging on the rationalization of industrial structure changes from negative to positive. For the central and western regions, regional technological innovation has a single threshold in the impact of population aging on the advancement and rationalization of the industrial structure, and only when the regional technological innovation capability is within a specific range, population aging will significantly promote the development of the advancement and rationalization of the industrial structure.

Key words:population aging; the upgrade of industrial structure; regional technological innovation; threshold regression