基于长期能源替代规划系统模型的粤港澳大湾区交通运输能源转型路径研究

Research on the Transport Energy Transformation Route of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System Model

摘要:

在掌握粤港澳大湾区交通运输领域能源消费状况基础上，构建长期能源替代规划系统（LEAP）-粤港澳大湾区交通模型，通过设置基准情景、能源转型情景和能源深度转型情景，模拟粤港澳大湾区交通运输领域未来的能源消费需求和节能潜力，分别从货运交通、城际客运、市内客运等部门分析其能源转型的方向和路径。研究结果显示：粤港澳大湾区交通运输领域未来的节能压力巨大，基准情景下的能源消费需求将持续增长，能源转型和能源深度转型情景下通过加大政策措施的实施力度，能源消费需求有望于2025－2030年达到峰值。基于分析结果，提出要实现粤港澳大湾区交通运输领域的能源转型，需要大力推进天然气、电力、氢能和生物燃油等清洁能源的应用，大力发展铁路和水路运输以及城市公共交通，并通过强化技术节能和管理水平提升实现交通运输工具的能效提升。

Abstract:

Based on the status quo analysis of energy consumption in the transportation sector in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA), this paper develops a long-range energy alternatives planning system model (LEAP-GBA Transportation Model) to simulate future energy consumption trends of transportation in GBA from 2017 to 2035 under three scenarios: baseline scenario (BS), energy transformation scenario (ETS), and deep energy transformation scenario (DTS). Then the paper discusses the energy saving potentials and the energy transformation directions and paths of transportation sector from the sub-sectors like freight transportation, intercity passenger transportation, and intra-city passenger transportation. Results show that the energy demand of transportation in GBA will continue to grow, which means great pressure on energy saving in the transportation sector. Under ETS and DTS scenarios, with the more stringent policies, the energy consumption demand is expected to peak between the year of 2025 and 2030. It is suggested that to realize the energy transition in the transportation sector of GBA, it is necessary to vigorously promote the application of clean energy such as natural gas, electricity, hydrogen and biofuels, promote the development of railway and waterway transportation, as well as urban public transportation, and improve the energy efficiency by strengthening technical energy conservation and improving management level.