首先结合TOE框架理论与创新决策过程，探讨基于Agent的创新扩散模型与Bass模型的内在联系，构建基于Agent的BIM技术扩散模型，其次利用Netlogo软件对BIM技术扩散进行动态仿真，探讨技术、组织和环境因素对建筑企业采纳行为的影响，预测BIM扩散趋势并提出政策建议。研究结果表明：BIM技术初始成熟度能提高扩散速度，但不能扩大扩散范围；BIM技术进步系数、网络平均度对BIM扩散起着积极稳定的影响；BIM技术初始成熟度能够在一定条件下削弱建筑企业需求差异。

Firstly, combines TOE framework theory with the innovation decision process, studies the internal relationship between the agent-based innovation diffusion and the Bass model, and then establishes the agent-based BIM technology diffusion simulation model. Secondly, use Netlogo software to realize the simulation of BIM technology diffusion, explore the influence of technical factors, organizational factors and environmental factors on the adoption behavior of construction companies, predict the trend of BIM technology diffusion and finally make useful policy recommendations. The result shows that the initial maturity of BIM technology can accelerate the diffusion speed, but it does not affect the final stable diffusion rate. BIM technology progress coefficient and network average degree have a positive and stable impact on the diffusion of BIM technology. Under certain conditions, the initial maturity of BIM technology can weaken the differentiation of technology needs of construction companies.

F273.1

国家社科基金重大项目“我国跨区域重大基础设施项目运维管理模式”（18ZDA043）；广州市哲学社会规划项目“粤港澳基础设施互联互通建设及机制研究”（2019GZYB86）