机构持股比例差异下的分析师乐观评级与高技术企业研发

Implications of Analysts’ Optimistic Rating for R&D of High-tech Enterprises over the Difference in Proportion of Institutional Ownership

摘要:

现有文献在研究股票交易市场参与者对高技术企业研发活动的影响时，往往将研发过程视作“黑箱”，只关注其与研发产出的直接关系的识别，这极易造成效应识别的混淆和影响机制起效条件认知的不足。本文基于文献分析，在打开研发过程“黑箱”的基础上，建构了机构持股比例差异下分析师乐观评级影响高技术企业研发人力资本存量向研发产出转化过程的理论模型；而后，使用2011-2017年间A股汽车制造业上市企业样本，结合层次回归和门限回归的方法对相关效应进行了检验。实证分析结果在识别了研发人力资本存量经由研发支出中介向研发产出转化过程的基础上，揭示了机构持股比例较低状态下高技术企业研发支出向研发产出转化过程无法稳定实现的问题，以及机构持股比例较高时分析师乐观评级对高技术企业研发支出向研发产出转化的强化作用。这些结论支持了在研究资本市场行为对高技术企业创新影响时，将研发过程分解为不同部分进行考察的合理性，为此类研究提供了更加完整的技术路线；结论中所体现的不同机构持股比例下分析师乐观评级对高技术企业研发影响的差异亦为相关研究拓宽了思路。

Abstract:

When studying the influence of stock market participants on the innovation activities of high-tech companies, R&D process is usually regarded as “black box” and concerned about the identification of its direct relationship with R&D output in existent literature. This problem will easily lead to ambiguity in identification of the effects and insufficient recognition of the environment that the influence mechanism works. In this paper, based on the literature analysis, we open the “black box” of R&D process, and construct a theoretical model to illustrate how the analysts’ optimistic rating will impact the transformation from stock of human capital to R&D output in high-tech companies with different proportions of institutional ownership. Then, we choose public listed automobile companies in A-share market from 2011 to 2017 as a sample. We examined the effects with hierarchical regression and threshold regression. The empirical result verified the identification of transformation from stock of human capital to R&D output through R&D input. Also, it indicated that the R&D input cannot be steadily transformed into R&D output when proportion of institutional ownership is low; furthermore, when proportion of institutional ownership is high, analysts’ optimistic rating would strengthen the transformation from R&D input to R&D output. The conclusion supports the reasonability to decompose the R&D process when studying the influence of capital market behaviors on innovation activities of high-tech companies, and provides a more complete technical route for research in this field. The different influence of analysts’ optimistic rating on R&D activities of high-tech companies with different proportion of institutional ownership, which is reflected in the conclusion will also broaden the views of relevant studies.