空间科学卫星工程项目进度及风险分析——基于蒙特卡洛模拟仿真

Progress and Risk Analysis of Space Science Satellite Project Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

摘要:

空间科学卫星工程项目工程复杂，技术难度高，不确定性高，工程项目完成时间估计较难，项目进度管理要求较高。通过Crystal Ball软件对空间科学卫星工程项目进度进行蒙特卡洛模拟仿真模拟，预测工程项目完成的时间，并进行敏感度分析，识别出整个研制项目过程中的风险主要存在的阶段。研究表明:蒙特卡洛模拟仿真方法是一种适用于空间卫星工程项目进度管理以及风险识别分析的便捷方法；要注重加强对空间科学卫星工程项目立项论证阶段以及正样研制阶段的风险管理。此方法对空间科学卫星工程项目的进度以及风险管理具有一定的决策依据。

Abstract:

The project of space science satellite engineering is complex, technically difficult and uncertain. It is difficult to estimate the completion time of the project, and the requirements of project schedule management are high.The progress of space science satellite project is simulated by Monte Carlo simulation through the crystal ball software, the completion time of the project is predicted, and the sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the main stages of risk in the whole development process. The results show that Monte Carlo simulation is a convenient method for schedule management and risk identification analysis of space satellite project; It is necessary to pay attention to strengthening the risk management in the demonstration stage of space science satellite engineering project and the development stage of the prototype. This method has certain decision basis for the progress and risk management of space science satellite project.