基于改进的ISM下山东省农业绿色全要素率影响因素研究*

Research on the Influencing Factors of Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity in Shandong Province based on improved ISM

摘要:

为识别影响山东省农业绿色全要素率的因素及各个因素间的层次结构,以山东省2003-2018年数据为例,利用Granger改进ISM模型计算指标间的层次结构。结论如下：通过对影响指标的层次结构分析得出,劳动力老龄化是影响农业绿色全要素率的最直接因素,农业信息化水平是根本因素；通过对层级结构的驱动-依赖性分析得出,劳动力老龄化、土地规模是表面层依赖因素,需借助其他层级发挥作用；劳动力女性化、人力资本和非农就业是具体层自制因素,具有保障其他层级因素的作用；经济发展水平、农业保险发展水平、农业信息化水平是关键层驱动因素,是影响其他层级发挥作用的核心因素。因此,从促进表面层、具体层、关键层作用的发挥提出提升山东省农业绿色全要素率的对策建议。

Abstract:

In order to identify the factors influencing agricultural green total factor productivity in Shandong province and the hierarchical structure among each factor, taking the data of Shandong province from 2003 to 2018 as an example, Granger model was used to improve ISM model to calculate the hierarchical structure among indicators. The conclusions are as follows. Based on the hierarchical structure analysis of the influencing indexes, it is concluded that the aging of labor force is the most direct factor affecting agricultural green total factor productivity, and the level of agricultural informatization is the fundamental factor. Through the driving-dependence analysis of the hierarchy structure, it is concluded that the aging of labor force and land scale are the dependent factors of the surface layer, which need to be played by other levels.The feminization of labor force, human capital and non-agricultural employment are factors of self-restraint at specific levels, which can guarantee other factors at different levels.The level of economic development, the level of agricultural insurance development and the level of agricultural informatization are the driving factors of the key levels and the core factors affecting the functions of other levels. Therefore, Suggestions are put forward to promote the surface layer, concrete layer and key layer to play their roles.