复杂工程项目风险传递机理研究

Research on risk transmission mechanism of complex construction project

摘要:

复杂工程项目相较于一般工程项目，常常会面临更为错综复杂的风险演化情景，风险要素之间的传递过程很大程度上导致了复杂工程项目风险管理的困境。本文首先采用文献综述法与头脑风暴法等方法全方位、全阶段识别复杂工程项目中的风险要素；然后运用专家调查法搭建风险要素之间的关联，进而构建复杂工程项目风险要素网络。结合网络可视化分析工具Netminer，重点分析了复杂工程项目风险网络的整体特征参数与局部特征参数，并以此为着眼点剖析了复杂工程项目中的风险传递现象。在此基础上，本文借助厦门市城市地下综合管廊案例来验证该网络模型的有效性。本论文的研究意义在于：识别出了复杂工程项目中的关键起始风险要素与传导风险要素，揭示了复杂网络风险传递的内在规律；并在此基础上提出了有效遏制风险传递的措施，为复杂工程项目的风险传递机理研究提供了理论依据与实践指导。

Abstract:

Compared with general projects, complex construction projects are often subject to more intricate scenarios of risk evolution, among which the transfer process between risk elements largely leads to the dilemma of complex construction project risk management. Firstly, the literature review method and brainstorming method are adopted to identify risk elements in full range and all stage of complex construction projectss, and then associations between risk elements are built through specialist survey method. From this, a complex construction project risk element network is constructed. Using the network visualization analysis tool(Gephi), this paper focuses on the analysis of the overall characteristic parameters and local characteristic parameters of the complex construction project risk network and then sets out to analyze the risk transmission phenomena in complex construction projects. On this basis, the feasibility of using the network model is validated by the case of Xiamen City Underground Comprehensive Pipe Gallery. The significance of the study lies in that it identifies the key initial risk elements and transmission risk elements in complex construction projects and reveals the inherent laws of risk transmission in a complex network. Based on these results, the paper proposes effective measures to contain risk transmission, which provides a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the study of the risk transmission mechanism in complex construction projects.