基于2006－2015年我国11个沿海省份的面板数据，实证检验海洋科技创新对海洋全要素生产率的影响及作用机制，并建立以海洋产业结构升级为门槛变量的面板门槛模型，考察海洋科技创新对海洋全要素生产率的非线性影响。结果表明：海洋科技创新对海洋全要素生产率的增长有显著的促进作用，且作用路径主要是技术进步；海洋科技创新促进海洋全要素生产率增长的过程存在单一门槛效应，随着海洋产业结构的升级，海洋科技创新对海洋全要素生产率的促进作用愈发显著。基于研究结论，提出加快海洋科技创新步伐和引导海洋产业结构升级等具体对策建议。

Based on the panel data of 11 coastal provinces in China from 2006 to 2015, this paper empirically examines the impact of marine scientific and technological innovation on marine total factor productivity and its mechanism, and establishes a panel threshold model which taking marine industrial structure upgrade as the threshold variable to investigate the nonlinear impact of marine scientific and technological innovation on marine total factor productivity. The results show that marine scientific and technological innovation has a significant promoting effect on the growth of marine total factor productivity, and the action path is mainly technological progress; there is a single threshold effect in the process of marine scientific and technological innovation promoting the growth of marine total factor productivity, with the upgrading of marine industrial structure, the promotion of marine scientific and technological innovation on marine total factor productivity becomes more and more significant. Based on the research conclusions, the paper puts forward specific countermeasures and suggestions of accelerating marine scientific and technological innovation pace and guiding the upgrading of marine industry structure.

P74;F124.3；F224；G301

国家社科基金重大研究专项“中美贸易摩擦背景下我国海洋产业转型升级的路径设计”(19VHQ007)；国家自然科学“蓝色粮仓背景下我国海水养殖业绿色技术进步测度、方向性评价与优化研究”(71873127)